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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Can Tebow Fix the First Quarter? - Wall Street Journal

FLORHAM PARK, N.J.â€"Even before they landed Tim Tebow, the Jets were widely considered one of the NFL's most entertaining clubs.

They've been to two AFC title games in the past three seasons. There's no such thing as a dull news conference with Rex Ryan, their human megaphone of a coach. And the team drew sky-high ratings for HBO's "Hard Knocks" documentary series in 2010.

But for all of the must-see TV the Jets provide, any anxiety-riddled fan of the team could tell you there's one thing you want to be sure to do: Cover your eyes until the first quarter is over.

The Jets have been downright ugly to watch in the early stages of games in recent years. And though they managed to dig themselves out of a bunch of those first-quarter holes, there could be bigger risks involved with falling behind in 2012. Doing so would thwart the run-based game plan the Jets want to employ and almost certainly set up a dilemma concerning how and when the team uses Tebow, the backup quarterback.

Statistically, the Jets were one of the slower-starting teams in the league last season, scoring just under four points per first quarter. That rate, better than only 11 other teams, was actually a vast improvement from the year before, when the Jets were second-worst in the NFL.

Opponents outscored the Jets to start games by 33 and 21 points in 2011 and 2010, respectively, according to Stats LLC. When the Jets scored an offensive first-quarter touchdown in Week 2 against Jacksonville last year, it marked the first time in 16 gamesâ€"or an entire regular season's worthâ€"that they had done so.

Of course, the Jets have been largely successful despite the slow starts. But there is no denying they've been a major problem. A closer look at the Jets' 13 regular-season losses over the past two years shows their opponents scored first in 11 of them.

"You'd love to [get ahead]," Ryan said. "I think that we're a team that if we get ahead, it obviously bodes well for us."

Quarterback Mark Sanchez has led 10 fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives over the past two years, and receiver Santonio Holmes refers to his clutch performances late in games as "Tone Time," but there are a handful of issues with that script, and those problems could soon be amplified if the Jets' early scoring woes persist.

For one, they'd have to abandon their blueprint "ground and pound" power-running game, a game plan they've said they'd like to rededicate themselves to under new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano. Having to throw the ball to catch up, in an effort to save time on the clock, would make them more one-dimensional than they want to be.

And if the team develops a pattern of falling behind this season, it might create a different type of quarterback controversy. For instance: Who would oversee the comeback efforts in the fourth quarterâ€"Sanchez, who's shown himself to be clutch, or Tebow, who is seen as enigmatic for virtually only playing well in clutch moments?

For all the hype that Tebow and his late-game heroics generate, there is still one potential pitfall to playing him over Sanchez if and when the Jets fall behind: He may not be the ideal quarterback to have when you're down late in a game.

The Jets traded for Tebow partly because of how dangerous he is as a rushing threat. But running the ball drains the clock, and Tebow's passing leaves something to be desired.

He was the least accurate starting quarterback in the league last year when facing defensive-line pressure, according to analysis site Pro Football Focus. He completed just over a third of his passes in such scenarios, which might be similar to what he would face if he were playing and the Jets were losing late in a game.

"Depending on the score and where you're at in the game, whether you're ahead, whether you're behind, that all probably plays into it," Tebow said of when he'd get opportunities to play.

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